Iran at War: Leadership Transition, Deterrence Erosion, and Regional Strategy

Featured Speakers: Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Dr. Sanam Vakil, Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, and Alex Vatanka.

Bios:

Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

Baker Institute Fellow for the Middle East, Rice University; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Ph.D., is a Baker Institute fellow for the Middle East and Senior Non-Resident Fellow for Gulf International Forum. Working across the disciplines of political science, international relations and international political economy, his research examines the changing position of Persian Gulf states in the global order, as well as the emergence of longer-term, nonmilitary challenges to regional security. Previously, he worked as a senior Gulf analyst at the Gulf Center for Strategic Studies between 2006 and 2008 and as co-director of the Kuwait Program on Development, Governance and Globalization in the Gulf States at the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2008 until 2013.

Dr. Sanam Vakil

Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Dr. Sanam Vakil is the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Her expertise spans Iranian and Gulf politics, regional security dynamics, and US foreign policy, with a particular focus on the evolving strategic landscape of the Middle East and its global connectivity.

At Chatham House, Sanam directs a diverse portfolio of research and policy initiatives, addressing critical issues such as Gulf Arab security and economic transitions, Iran’s regional ambitions, governance and political reform, women’s empowerment, and the intersection of climate and socio-economic challenges.

She provides nuanced analysis of Western policy priorities – particularly those of the UK, US, and Europe – while also offering strategic insight into the growing influence of China and Russia across the region, and regularly engaging with government, corporate and research sectors.

In addition to her policy work, Sanam holds the James Anderson Professorial Lectureship in Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS Europe) in Bologna, Italy, where she has taught Middle East politics since 2008.

She previously served on the faculty of SAIS Washington’s Middle East Studies Program. Sanam is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and serves on other advisory boards and is regularly consulted by high ranking government officials in the US, Europe, UK, and Middle East.

Dr. Hamidreza Azizi

Visiting Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP); Associate Researcher, Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations; Non-resident Fellow, Middle East Council on Global Affairs.

Dr. Hamidreza Azizi is a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) and an associate researcher at Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. He is also a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.

Prior, Azizi was an associate fellow at Al Sharq Strategic Research in 2022. He also lectured at several Iranian universities, including the University of Tehran (2016-2018) and Shahid Beheshti University (2016-2020). Azizi’s research interests include security and geopolitical issues in the Middle East and Central Eurasia, Iran’s foreign and security policy, and Iran-Russia relations.

Azizi has published many books, academic articles, and policy papers in English and Persian. His latest peer-reviewed articles were published in the Mediterranean Politics, the Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, and Small Wars & Insurgencies. His analysis has been featured in many research and media outlets including Chatham House, the Middle East Institute (MEI), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), Foreign Policy, The National Interest, and Al-Monitor, among others.

Alex Vatanka

Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute 

Alex Vatanka is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. He specializes in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran. He was formerly a Senior Analyst at Jane’s Information Group in London. Alex is also a Senior Fellow in Middle East Studies at the US Air Force Special Operations School (USAFSOS) at Hurlburt Field and teaches as an Adjunct Professor at DISAS at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. He has testified before the US Congress and lectured widely for both governmental and commercial audiences, including the US Departments of State and Defense, US intelligence agencies, and a list of international corporations.

Born in Tehran, he holds a BA in Political Science (Sheffield University, UK), and an MA in International Relations (Essex University, UK), and is fluent in Farsi and Danish. He is the author of two books: The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy and Political Rivalry Since 1979 (2021) and Iran and Pakistan: Security, Diplomacy, and American Influence (2015).

He has also written chapters for a number of books, including Authoritarianism Goes Global (2016); Handbook on Contemporary Pakistan (2017); Russia in the Middle East (2018), Winning the Battle, Losing the War: Addressing the Drivers Fueling Armed Non-state Actors and Extremist Groups (2020); Global, Regional and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis (2020); Routledge Handbook of Counterterrorism and Irregular Warfare Operations (2021); and Understanding New Proxy Wars (2022). He is presently working on his third book, Iran’s Arab Strategy: Defending the Homeland or Exporting Khomeinism?