U.S.-Gulf Policy (2023)

U.S.-Gulf Relations in Transition and the Future of Policy Dynamics

Workshop Concept

This workshop will delve into the evolving dynamics of the U.S.-Gulf relations over the past decade, assessing potential future trajectories against the backdrop of mounting uncertainties surrounding long-established U.S. interests in the region. While our primary focus is on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, the workshop will also touch upon Iran and Yemen, recognizing their role as significant points of divergence in U.S.-Gulf relations and among the Gulf States. We will explore topics such as: the interplay between U.S. domestic political polarization and foreign policy ambitions; Variations in engagement strategies of individual Gulf States with the U.S., questioning if there’s a unified GCC stance on U.S. relations; the position Gulf States might adopt in the era of heightened global power struggles, particularly between the U.S., China, and Russia; the influence of energy transitions and climate action on traditional U.S. interests in the Middle East and the Gulf; the potential evolution of the U.S. emphasis on the Abraham Accords and Gulf States’ cautious approach towards Iran.

Contributing to the theme of ‘U.S.-Gulf policy’, this workshop aims to address the fundamental shifts in U.S.-Gulf relationships and the specific issues shaping this evolution. Contributors are expected to provide critical insights into both defense, domestic, energy, and security facets of the political relationship, alongside the factors influencing decision-making in the U.S. and the Gulf. In a bid to move beyond the oft-criticized U.S.-centric lens of the ‘D.C. discourse’ on U.S.-Gulf matters, the workshop aims to bring forward diverse policy perspectives.

As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the workshop will maintain its relevance by delving into core issues reshaping U.S.-Gulf policy, rather than focusing on a particular administration. In doing so, the eventual publication aims to serve as a beacon for understanding future developments in these relations.

U.S.-Gulf ties have been in flux for a while. Decisions from the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations have led to growing apprehensions in Gulf capitals. U.S. domestic political polarization has further exacerbated these uncertainties. Instances like the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the muted U.S. reaction to the 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia and UAE, and Trump’s initial stance on the 2017 Qatar blockade have incrementally eroded trust. As these foundational aspects of U.S.-Gulf relations are increasingly questioned, it becomes pivotal to re-examine and redefine them.

• We invite contributions from a diverse academic spectrum to address, but not limit themselves to, the following topics:
• Domestic and foreign policy polarization in U.S. politics and its impact on current U.S.-Gulf relations.
• The perceptions of various Gulf States towards the U.S. political landscape.
• Role of Congress in U.S. foreign policy (toward a particular case or general approach)
• Party and factionalism involvement of Congress in U.S.-Gulf relations decisions.
• Investigates the implications of the global shift away from fossil fuels on U.S. Gulf relations.
• Investigate Gulf states investments in climate policy and increased U.S. investments in this domain on U.S.-Gulf relations.
• The rise of electric vehicles in the U.S.: the implications for the traditional U.S.-Gulf ‘oil for security’ relationship, and how this shift might impact diplomatic ties.
• Examining concerns about the U.S.’s credibility on the global stage, especially in the wake of decisions perceived as abandoning allies.
• The emergence of multipolar global dynamics and how Gulf States are navigating these waters.
• The evolving nature of U.S.-Gulf relationships beyond the conventional ‘oil-for-security’ paradigm.
• The Abraham Accords and Israeli-Gulf normalization: Chronicles the signing of the Abraham Accords, its impact, and the potential for further Israeli-Gulf normalization.
• Exploring the nuanced relationship between Gulf States and Iran, the U.S.’s stance on the JCPOA, and the potential influences on Gulf States-Iran relations in the near future.

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