Ceasefire and Negotiations: Energy Lifelines and the Risk of Escalation

Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Colby Connelly, Jennifer Gavito, and Dr. Arman Mahmoudian.

Ambassador Patrick Theros (moderator)

Strategic Advisor and Senior Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Ambassador Patrick Theros is a Strategic Advisor and Senior Fellow at Gulf International Forum. He served as the U.S. Ambassador to the State of Qatar from 1995-1998. Prior to his appointment, he served as Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism, responsible for the coordination of all U.S. Government counterterrorism activities outside the United States. From 1991-1993, Ambassador Theros served as the Political Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of Central Command (CENTCOM).

Ambassador Theros joined the Foreign Service in 1963, and served in a variety of positions in Washington D.C., Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Nicaragua and Syria, including charge d’affaires and Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. embassies in the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. In 1999, His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifah Al-Thani awarded Ambassador Theros the Qatar Order of Merit for his efforts in service of the U.S.-Qatar bilateral relationship. His commitment to national service also earned him the President’s Meritorious Service Award and the Secretary of Defense Medal for Meritorious Civilian Service (1992). Ambassador Theros has also earned four Superior Honor Awards, the highest awards for distinguished service given by the Foreign Service. After his retirement from the Foreign Service Ambassador Theros assumed the office of President of the U.S.-Qatar Business Council in March 2000 until his retirement in 2017.

Ambassador Theros’ personal commitment to community and public service earned him the rank of Knight Commander of the Order of the Holy Sepulcher by the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Jerusalem (1999), as well as the Ellis Island Medal of Freedom (2005). In addition to his duties as President of the U.S.-Qatar Business Council, Ambassador Theros is also active in the following organizations: The Middle East Policy Council, Board of Directors; The Council of Foreign Relations, Member; The Washington Institute of Foreign Affairs, Member; and The American Academy of Diplomacy, Member.

Ambassador Theros graduated from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in 1963. He has done advanced studies at the American University in Washington, D.C., the Universidad Centroamericana in Nicaragua, the Armed Forces Staff College at Norfolk, Virginia, and the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. He is married to Aspasia (nee Pahigiannis) and has three children. He speaks and reads Spanish, Arabic and Greek professionally.

Colby Connelly

Head of Middle East Content, Energy Intelligence; Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute

Colby Connelly is Energy Intelligence’s Head of Middle East Content and a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Based in Dubai, Mr Connelly leads development of editorial and research efforts that cover the Middle East and North Africa. He is responsible for editorial strategy, research and analysis ensuring impactful insights for global audiences.

Prior to joining Energy Intelligence, Mr Connelly worked as a Research Associate at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, where he focused on the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council region, with special attention to national oil companies and domestic energy markets. He spent several years working as a contractor in Saudi Arabia in support of workforce nationalization projects established as part of the government’s Saudization initiative. He designed, managed and supported multiple training programs tailored for new employees of Saudi energy and critical infrastructure companies. He also has over seven years’ experience serving as a contributor to IHS Markit’s Middle East and North Africa country risk product.

Mr. Connelly holds an MA in global security studies from the Center for Advanced Governmental Studies at Johns Hopkins University and a BA in international affairs from James Madison University.

Jennifer Gavito

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative; Senior Advisor, Cohen Group  

Jennifer Gavito is a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative within the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. Gavito is a senior advisor at the Cohen Group, where she co-leads the firm’s Middle East practice. She was most recently a career Senior Foreign Service officer with the rank of minister-counselor. Gavito has more than twenty-five years of experience working in diplomatic positions in Washington and throughout the Middle East and Europe, on the staff of the National Security Council, and as a senior advisor to the US Department of Defense.

Gavito most recently served as the acting principal deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. Prior to that, she was the deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran. She concurrently served as deputy assistant secretary of state for press and public diplomacy. Prior to retiring from government service, Gavito was nominated to serve as the US ambassador to Libya.

Gavito has also served as minister-counselor for political affairs at the US Embassy in London, US consul general to Bavaria, and political counselor at US Consulate General Jerusalem. She also served as senior foreign policy advisor to the director for strategy, plans, and programs at US Africa Command; deputy consul general at US Consulate General Dubai; director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council; deputy director for North Africa at the Department of State; and head of the economic and commercial section at US Embassy Beirut. She began her career in public service at the US Treasury Department.

Gavito speaks fluent German and has Arabic and French language skills. She received the 2024 Presidential Rank Award for her contributions to public service. She also received Joint Civilian Service Meritorious Commendation Medal from the Department of Defense and is a six-time recipient of the State Department’s Superior Honor Award. She obtained BA in economics and international service from American University.

Dr. Arman Mahmoudian

Research Fellow, USF Global and National Security Institute; Lecturer of International Affairs, University of South Florida

Arman Mahmoudian holds a PhD in Politics and International Affairs from the University of South Florida. He earned his Master’s in International Relations in Russia and my Bachelor’s in Law in  Iran. Currently he serves as a full time in-house research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute and as an adjunct faculty member.

In addition to his professional roles and publications, he is a member of the editorial board at the Joint Special Operations University. His research and commentary on Middle Eastern and Russian affairs have been featured in leading outlets, including Foreign Policy, The National Interest, Stimson Center, Atlantic Council, Gulf International Forum, and other platforms.

He frequently provides expert analysis on various media channels, such as CNN, BBC News, BBC World, BBC World Service, BBC Channel One, BBC Persia, BBC Arabic, Al Jazeera Balkan, Le Monde, and Deutsche Welle, offering insights on Middle Eastern and Russian affairs. He has also been invited to share his expertise at prominent institutions, including the European Delegation for Syria, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), the Middle East Institute, and the London School of Economics (LSE).