Regional Update: The GCC States’ Strategies and Security Calculus in the Iran-Israel Confrontation

The recent confrontation between Iran and Israel has placed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in an extremely precarious position—both strategically and economically. For Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and their neighbors, a full-scale war between Iran and Israel is nothing short of a nightmare scenario. With energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and U.S. military bases scattered across the Gulf, any regional conflict risks drawing these states into the crossfire. Their economies, deeply reliant on stable oil and gas exports, global trade flows, and investor confidence, could suffer catastrophic consequences from sustained military escalation or strikes on critical infrastructure.

Over the past few years, Gulf states—particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE—have made a concerted effort to reduce tensions with Tehran. Motivated by the trauma of previous proxy conflicts and direct attacks on energy assets, they reopened diplomatic channels, restored embassies, and pursued a foreign policy aimed at de-escalation. This strategy was not out of alignment with Western interests, but rather a pragmatic attempt to prevent precisely the kind of scenario currently unfolding.

For the past three months, Oman has been mediating between Tehran and the Trump administration to broker a limited nuclear or de-escalatory deal. Their goal has been to prevent either side from escalating beyond the point of no return. Muscat’s mediation has been backed by all GCC states. These efforts reflect a broader strategic shift seeking to preserve regional stability. However, the current trajectory of events has strained those efforts and raised serious concerns about whether their diplomacy can hold the line against hardline military calculus. For the GCC, this is not just someone else’s war—it is a direct threat to their economic survival and regional security.

Featured speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer, Dr. Ebtesam Al Ketbi, Sheikh Nawaf Al Thani and Dr. Yousuf Al Bulushi.

Speakers Bio:

Dr. Dania Thafer (moderator)

Executive Director, Gulf International Forum

Dr. Dania Thafer is the Executive Director of Gulf International Forum, an institute based in Washington, D.C. that provides analysis on political, economic, social, and security issues for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Iran, Iraq and Yemen. She is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Foreign Service’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University. Her expertise is on the Gulf region’s security, U.S.-Gulf relations, and the political economy of the GCC states.

Dr. Thafer has been widely published and consults regularly on matters concerning the GCC and the Middle East. Dr. Thafer has a new book titled “Creative Insecurity: Institutional Inertia and Youth Potential in the GCC” published by Oxford University Press and Hurst Co. (2023). Additionally, she has co-authored two edited books “The Arms Trade, Military Services and the Security Market in the Gulf States: Trends and Implications” and “The Dilemma of Security and Defense in the Gulf Region.” Her commentary has appeared in international media outlets, including:  The New York Times, Financial Times, BBC World, Washington Post, Forbes, Al Jazeera and others. Additionally, she is regularly consulted by governmental, non-governmental, corporations and research institutions globally.

Previously, she was responsible for building relationships with foreign dignitaries from the Middle East at the National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, DC. Dr. Thafer has a master’s degree in political science from New York University, and Ph.D. in Political Science, specialized in the Political Economy and International Relations from American University in Washington, DC.

Sheikh Nawaf Bin Mubarak Al-Thani

Board of Directors, Gulf International Forum 

Sheikh Nawaf Bin Mubarak Al-Thani is a member of Board of Directors. Nawaf M. Al-Thani is a writer, columnist, and lecturer in the fields of International Relations and Defense, focusing on the areas of Small State Security, MENA Defense, and Intelligence. He previously served with the rank of Brigadier General as Director of Defense Intelligence Operations in the State of Qatar. As a Diplomat, he served as the State of Qatar’s Senior Defense Official and Defense Attaché to the United States of America, Canada, and Mexico. Before that, as the Official Spokesperson and Director of Strategic Communications (STRATCOM) in the Ministry of Defense.

Al-Thani has served in several foreign military deployments, including Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Odyssey Dawn, and Operation Unified Protector, and served in several humanitarian missions globally, including membership in the Arab League Humanitarian Observer mission in Syria in 2012.

Sheikh Nawaf has received distinguished commendations and citations from the Qatar Armed Forces, several NATO militaries, and multinational organizations. He is also the recipient of the French Republic’s Army Parachute infantry regiment Airborne wings “Brevet parachutiste militair”, the Qatar Armed Forces Airborne wings, and Ranger/Commando tab. He earned his LL.B from Qatar University and an M.Res in Defense Studies from Kings College London (U.K.). He graduated with distinction from the inaugural class (Class No.1) of the Ahmed Bin Mohammed Military Academy (Qatar) and is also a General Command & Staff graduate with honors from the Joaan bin Jassim Academy for Defense Studies (Qatar).

He serves as an Advisory Committee Member in Georgetown University’s Small States Research Program (Qatar). And as a Distinguished International Defense Affairs Fellow at the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations (Washington, D.C.)

Dr. Ebtesam AlKetbi

President and Founder, Emirates Policy Center

Dr. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi is the President and Founder of the Emirates Policy Center. Dr. Al-Ketbi is a Professor of Political Science at the United Arab Emirates University. In recognition of her role and the great respect she enjoys as part of the distinguished elite in the UAE and the Gulf region, Dr. Al-Ketbi was appointed in 2015 as a Member of the Consultative Commission of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In 2018, she made it to the ‘50 Most Influential Women’ list in the Arab world, while in 2019, Dr. Al-Ketbi received the ‘Women Super Achiever Award’ during the World Women Leadership Congress. In 2021, she was made an Advisor on the Global Commission for Post-Pandemic Policy.