Israel’s Strike on Qatar: Gulf Experts’ Perspectives

Watershed Moment for GCC Regional Security

Dr. Dania Thafer, Executive Director, Gulf International Forum

For the GCC states, Washington has shown that its “ally” status with them takes a back seat to supporting Israel’s war strategy. In some ways, it is surprising that Israel would dare to strike Qatar—a major U.S. non-NATO ally and host of the U.S. Central Command’s forward headquarters. Regardless, the Israeli strike on Doha poses a major security dilemma for all Gulf states as Israel expands its war fronts into their sub-region. 

A growing perception is taking hold across the region: the United States, once seen as the main security guarantor, is now increasingly viewed as an enabler of insecurity. In the past, Israeli attacks on Iran triggered a series of events that led to retaliatory strikes on Qatar. Today, Israel is not only complicating the Gulf’s security—it is directly attacking a GCC member state. These developments will push the GCC toward greater unity and deepen regional cooperation that excludes Israel. Over the long term, it also risks a fundamental shift in America’s strategic posture in the Gulf.

Eroded Trust: U.S. Credibility Shaken by Israel’s Actions

Ambassador Patrick Theros, Strategic Advisor, Gulf International Forum

The Israeli attack on Qatar has dealt a profound blow to Qatari confidence in the United States as a security guarantor. The very notion that Israel might have believed it enjoyed tacit U.S. approval has shaken that trust to its core. Washington’s tepid response—that such an attack was not in Israel’s or America’s interest—offered little reassurance in Doha or across the Gulf.

At its heart, the attack reflects Prime Minister Netanyahu’s determination to prolong conflict wherever necessary to preserve his precarious coalition. It is possible that Israel believed Hamas was moving toward accepting the terms of Trump’s most recent ceasefire deal and decided to prevent such an outcome by killing Hamas’s negotiators. For the wider GCC, the critical test is whether Washington demonstrates the will to restrain Netanyahu in the wake of these attacks. Trust in the United States’ position as a security guarantor has been badly eroded, and Gulf capitals will likely hedge by continuing to engage with Iran—both as a signal of displeasure with Israel and as a pragmatic step to reduce tensions. Turkey will move quickly to try to assert itself as a more plausible and reliable protector of the GCC countries. It saved Qatar from its neighbors in 2017 and will argue that it can protect the GCC from Israel more credibly than an increasingly unstable American approach to the region.

Ultimately, the questions that linger over this crisis are stark: What did Trump know about the attacks, and when did he know they would take place? What signal—whether deliberate or tacit—led Netanyahu to believe he had a green light?

Echoes of 2017: Qatar’s Renewed Search for Assurances from Washington

Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East at Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

The September 9 Israeli airstrikes on Doha could, in time, prove to be as consequential for U.S. standing in the Gulf as Iran’s missile and drone strikes against Saudi oil infrastructure were during President Trump’s first term in office. Officials in Doha and other GCC capitals will likely be seeking urgent assurances from Washington on the roles of CENTCOM and Al-Udeid air base in the run-up to the strike. These fears are heightened by the fact that Israel was moved into the CENTCOM area of responsibility in 2021, and that the base is designed to detect and deter precisely these sorts of aerial threats—before they can strike a residential district in the capital on a busy afternoon. A collective response from Gulf leaders may question the future viability of CENTCOM as presently constituted and the utility of the U.S. security umbrella.

For Qatar specifically, the strikes mirror the shock Doha’s leaders felt during the first Trump term, when the U.S. president publicly sided with the blockading states in June 2017 at the beginning of the Gulf Rift. Since then, Qatar has redoubled its efforts to strengthen the bilateral relationship with the United States at every level. These efforts were successful in both convincing President Trump to reverse his position on the blockade and President Joe Biden to confer Major Non-NATO Ally status to Qatar in 2022. This new shock in Trump’s second term may well prompt a similar assessment of the landscape confronting Qatar as assurances are urgently sought to ensure this strike is indeed a one-off.

Even Amid Turbulence, U.S.-Qatar Defense Ties Hold Strong

David Des Roches, Professor at the National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Remarks do not reflect the views of any USG agency

It is unlikely that the Israeli assassination attempt will have any long-lasting effect on the U.S. presence or on U.S. defense ties with Qatar, a Major non-NATO Ally.  The relationship between Washington and Doha is strong, and this event is unlikely to be repeated. The Qataris enjoy a long-term partnership with the United States that involves decades-long training, security education, and procurement cycles. Case in point: a member of the Qatari royal family recently graduated from West Point. An incident such as this is more likely to be viewed as an Israeli issue than an American one. Any Qatari concerns will likely form a subset of broader dissatisfaction with Israel’s conduct in general and will be unlikely to diminish the otherwise overwhelmingly positive Qatari-U.S. relationship.

Shattered Confidence: Public Anger and Disillusionment in Qatar

Dr. Hind Al Ansari, Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Immediately after Israeli missiles struck Hamas’s political offices in Doha, speculation and concern rapidly spread across social media—particularly in family WhatsApp groups—with many describing windows rattling inside their homes, coupled with the deafening sound of blasts reverberating across the capital. Once the attacks were confirmed as an Israeli operation, many speculated that the assault had been approved by President Trump, even before the White House issued a statement flatly rejecting any involvement. Instead of focusing on the actual perpetrator, Israel, much of the anger was directed at the United States—a reflection of the shattering of the faith that Qataris had placed in their relationship with the United States.

The United States’ unwavering support for Israel over the past two years has served as a sobering reminder to Qataris (and the wider GCC public) of the limits of Washington’s reliability as an impartial security guarantor. Public disillusionment deepened significantly after the Iran missile attack on the American airbase at Al-Udeid, when locals watched the strikes unfold from their rooftops and cars. Now, after the Israeli assault on Doha, many Qataris are angered by the United States’ dismissive handling of the attack, fueling more frustration and uncertainty over the trajectory of Qatari-U.S. relations.

Some citizens are calling for a coordinated response from Qatar and the wider GCC, rather than fragmented statements of condemnation. Others express a sense of dismay mixed with pride for Qatar’s role in navigating high-stakes negotiations. Still others are beginning to question the validity of U.S. security guarantees. The public is demanding a stronger, collective front against the newfound threat posed by Israel to the country and—increasingly—the entire region.

GCC’s Need for a Collective Security Strategy

Dr. Mohammad Alrumaihi, Professor of Sociology, Kuwait University; Board of Directors Member, Gulf International Forum 

Israel has repeatedly declared its intention to eliminate all members of Hamas, so its recent attempt to kill the organization’s leaders in Doha comes as no surprise. While Qatar had taken the initiative to mediate between Tel Aviv and Hamas, the group’s refusal to release all Israeli hostages, coupled with the Israeli government’s consistent rejection of ceasefire deals, has thwarted a lasting peace. 

Ironically, Qatar’s efforts to mediate conflicts in the region have only worsened its own position, exposing it to attacks from both Tehran and Tel Aviv in less than two months. The attacks on Qatar ultimately underscore one of the region’s most pressing security dilemmas: despite its influence and commitments to peace, the Gulf states—especially smaller countries like Qatar—remain vulnerable to the consequences of a complex and rapidly evolving regional security environment. 

As current events have shown, the responsibilities are too difficult for any one state to handle alone, and while the region has long called for a united military alliance, those calls have largely remained rhetorical. Israel’s attacks are evidence that expressions of solidarity alone will not suffice—what the GCC really needs is a unified long-term strategy that goes beyond military cooperation. The GCC must develop a defense policy that also includes coordination of information, media, and education. As the world enters a dangerous political environment, where international law is being disregarded and global rivalries are at a peak, cooperation among the Gulf states will now be more critical than ever.

Turkey on Alert: Strengthening Military Posture

Dr. Sinem Cengiz, Researcher, Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Center; Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Israel has attacked a sovereign GCC country that not only hosts the largest U.S. military base but also the only Turkish military base in the Gulf. Israel’s increasingly frequent attacks against Hamas in third countries threaten to destabilize the region and are a growing concern for the Turkish political elite. 

After the attack on Qatar, several pro-Israeli social media accounts started targeting Turkey. Israel sees Ankara’s growing leverage in Syria as a major issue, and Syria is viewed as a potential flashpoint for conflict between Turkey and Israel. Turkey and Israel have never reached this point. Although the West considers a conflict between Turkey and Israel unlikely, the United States and Europe still fail to understand the trepidation among Middle Eastern states as Israel has become increasingly bold in its violations of international law and regional red lines. 

That said, Israel is well aware that Turkey is a key NATO member with the second-largest military in the alliance. Any misstep against Turkey will have serious consequences, and Israel should know this better than most. Turkey has been accelerating its indigenous defense projects in recent years, partly as a precaution against a possible reckless move by Israel. These projects have only accelerated after Israel’s attacks on Iran in June. Turkey has also intensified air patrols within its own airspace following the attack on Qatar. 

After this attack, be sure to watch Turkey’s military presence in Doha. Last year, Ankara deployed two naval ships and six F-16 jet fighters to Qatar, and more men and materiel may soon be on their way to deter Tel Aviv. In his first statement after the attack, President Erdoğan reaffirmed Turkey’s support for Qatar, stating that the two countries will work together to form a joint response.