IEA releases “Oil Market Report – March 2026”

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market. The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. With crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunging from around 20 mb/d before the war to a trickle currently, limited capacity available to bypass the crucial waterway, and storage filling up, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase. With few ships currently able or willing to load cargoes at port, and domestic storage tanks filling up, producers in the region are reducing or shutting in production. Diesel and jet fuel markets look to be particularly vulnerable to an extended loss of Middle East production and exports, given limited flexibility elsewhere to increase output. The suspension of flights at major airports in the Middle East, with a knock-on effect on hubs elsewhere, has materially reduced global jet fuel demand. The ultimate impact on oil and gas markets and the broader economy from the conflict will depend not only on the intensity of military attacks and any damage to energy assets, but also, crucially, on the duration of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Adequate insurance mechanisms and physical protection for shipping are key to the resumption of flows, which is of paramount importance for the oil market.