Saudi Arabia is expected to significantly increase fuel oil and crude burn for domestic power generation this summer, as the Iran war's forced shut-in of Ras Tanura, which produces associated gas alongside crude, has reduced the kingdom's gas supply for power plants. Gas output slipped to 10.5 bcfd in Q1 2026 from 10.7 bcfd in Q4 2025 despite the Jafurah gas field's start-up in December. Aramco ramped up fuel oil imports to around 360,000 bpd in April, up 86% YoY to partially compensate. Rystad Energy forecasts total crude and fuel oil consumption for power generation could average 540,000 to 550,000 bpd this summer, potentially exceeding 1 million bpd in peak months. Every barrel burned domestically is a barrel that cannot be exported at peak war prices.