Trump’s Second Term and the Gulf: Promise, Pitfalls, and the Pursuit of Peace

President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 has ushered in a new chapter in U.S. foreign policy—one with profound implications for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. His unexpected electoral comeback last November signaled a renewed embrace of his assertive and transactional approach to global affairs. For the GCC, Trump’s second term could mean closer security ties, greater maneuverability for geopolitical deal-making, and a potential recalibration of U.S. positions on regional conflicts. His return has captured global attention, generating both anticipation and concern over the revival of his unconventional and often unpredictable diplomatic style.

Trump is renowned for rejecting traditional diplomatic procedure, preferring instead an approach driven by personal intuition, assertiveness, and an unabashed reliance on America’s considerable strength to bargain with allies and adversaries alike. His distinctive leadership, marked by a disregard for established diplomatic conventions, has generated significant unease among world leaders. European nations, NATO member states, and Asian allies and partners are particularly concerned about Trump’s insistence on minimizing America’s international obligations to reduce domestic burdens—potentially disrupting long-standing security arrangements and alliances that have long served U.S. interests.

Reinventing the Middle East Peace Process

At the forefront of Trump’s ambitious international agenda in the Middle East is his intention to build upon the momentum of the Abraham Accords. Having facilitated these normalization agreements between Israel and Arab nations, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco during his first term, Trump is now setting his sights on a more comprehensive regional peace that would include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Trump’s administration likely believes that recent regional developments present a historic opportunity to reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical paradigm.

Indeed, several significant regional developments have drastically altered the balance of power in the Middle East since Trump’s first term, which could facilitate Trump’s peace initiatives. The Assad regime’s collapse in Syria, replaced by a more flexible government, has opened new diplomatic pathways for dealing with Damascus. Similarly, Iraq—formerly a hotbed of pro-Iranian sentiment—has exhibited notable shifts in its stance toward regional cooperation and peace efforts by aligning more closely with diplomatic initiatives favored by the United States. Diminishing Iranian influence across Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq further enhances prospects for American-led diplomacy, presenting Trump with an unprecedented chance to broker a lasting peace between Israel and the Arab world.

Central to Trump’s strategy for Middle Eastern peace is Saudi Arabia’s accession to the Abraham Accords. However, Riyadh has consistently demanded a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue that includes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state before normalizing relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia’s unflinching position underscores the broader Arab consensus that regional stability is contingent upon Palestinian statehood. Trump’s most significant challenge, then, will be to bridge this gap by addressing Saudi Arabia’s and other Arab nations’ genuine concerns about the future of the Palestinian people—most likely by convincing Tel Aviv to make concessions to Palestinian leaders in support of a wider regional peace.

Palestinian Statehood and GCC Support

Ensuring that the GCC states buy into the president’s regional vision will require shrewd diplomacy and effective leadership to overcome doubts over Washington’s increasingly close relationship with the Netanyahu government in Israel. The GCC countries remain pivotal in maintaining global economic and political stability, primarily through their critical role in supplying energy at sustainable prices. Recognizing their strategic value, GCC states have increasingly embraced active diplomacy and engagement in global economic, social, and developmental issues. Their approach exemplifies a balanced diplomacy that promotes regional and international stability—making their support crucial to Trump’s broader diplomatic objectives.

Despite Trump’s bold initiatives and optimistic outlook, deep-rooted skepticism persists across the Arab world regarding his impartiality, particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Trump’s previous actions—such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights—have significantly undermined trust among Arabs and their governments. So, too, has his near-unconditional support for Israel’s in the Gaza war, as well as his proposals to have the United States administer the Gaza Strip. These moves have stoked doubts about his ability or willingness to champion fair and equitable solutions aligned with international law and regional consensus.

The fundamental obstacle confronting Trump’s peace agenda remains the unresolved issue of Palestinian statehood. The creation of a viable Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank remains the cornerstone of any enduring peace strategy. Without genuinely addressing Palestinian aspirations, regional instability will persist, exacerbating tensions, extremism, and regional insecurity. Trump’s legacy will hinge significantly upon his ability to facilitate this critical step toward regional stability and lasting peace.

Since Trump’s first term, the American strategic presence in the Middle East has expanded considerably, punctuated by enhanced partnerships with GCC states. This strengthened network of close ties provides Trump with greater leverage and strategic depth to implement his diplomatic goals. Such evolving dynamics offer Trump the necessary platform to potentially achieve diplomatic breakthroughs previously considered impossible, provided the president carefully navigates regional sensitivities.

As Trump begins his second term, he faces a decisive moment. The international community, regional stakeholders, and the global audience are closely watching his actions and intentions regarding Middle Eastern peace. His ability to deliver on his ambitious peace promises will depend significantly on his willingness to advocate for a balanced and just resolution of the Palestinian issue.

Trump’s success or failure in addressing this central conflict will undoubtedly define his presidency’s historical significance and profoundly impact regional and global peace. His presidency, characterized by unprecedented boldness and an unconventional approach to foreign policy, offers both promise and uncertainty on this issue. As the world awaits his next moves, Trump’s decisions and diplomatic efforts will undeniably shape international relations for years to come, influencing peace, stability, and global cooperation in one of the most fluid regions of the world.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Gulf International Forum.