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A Reuters poll of 18 economists found GCC economies are going into their worst economic crisis since the pandemic with several expected to contract in 2026. Saudi Arabia's growth forecast was cut from 4.3% to 2.6% and Oman's from 2.8% to 2.2%, while Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE all face deeper contractions driven by the Hormuz closure. Economists warned "it will take the entire second half of 2026 to rebuild damaged assets and re-establish supply chains", with inflation rising across all six GCC states. Unlike previous oil price shock, this crisis is unique in simultaneously raising prices while blocking the region's ability to export, eliminating the traditional revenue offset.

Gulf Economists Cut Growth Forecasts as the Region Heads for Worst Crisis Since Pandemic

A Reuters poll of 18 economists found GCC economies are going into their worst economic crisis since the pandemic with several expected to contract in 2026. Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast was cut from 4.3% to 2.6% and Oman’s from 2.8% to 2.2%, while Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE all face deeper contractions driven by the Hormuz closure. Economists warned “it will take the entire second half of 2026 to rebuild damaged assets and re-establish supply chains”, with inflation rising across all six GCC states. Unlike previous oil price shock, this crisis is unique in simultaneously raising prices while blocking the region’s ability to export, eliminating the traditional revenue offset.

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