Iraq’s Water Emergency: Oil Dependency and the Erosion of State Capacity

Iraq is facing one of its worst water crises in decades, primarily driven by worsening climate conditions and structural issues such as mismanagement, corruption, conflict, and weak institutions. With the Tigris and Euphrates experiencing a 27 percent decline in water levels, Baghdad is experiencing its driest season since 1933. While climate change and upstream water restrictions are factors, the country’s political economy is the crux of the problem. If structural conditions remain unchanged, Iraq’s political, economic, and social stability will continue to deteriorate.

Vanishing Eden: The Disappearance of the Iraqi Marshland

On March 31st, 2024, Iraqi authorities closed key entrances to Al-Hawizeh Marsh, a wetland situated on the southern Iraq-Iran border. The closure restricts entry to one of the world’s oldest wetlands and the ancestral home of the Ahwari Arabs. Designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site in July 2016, the marsh has long sustained the Ahwari way of life, supporting fishing, bird harvesting, and water buffalo herding. The Iraqi government has pledged to safeguard both the marsh’s environmental conditions and the human rights of its indigenous population, yet the closure has effectively cut off a community already strained by water scarcity, environmental degradation, and governmental neglect. The Ahwaris’ risk of displacement and further socio-economic exclusion has increased dramatically.

Despite persistent efforts by local activists to either regain access or obtain an explanation for the closure, the Al-Hawizeh Marsh remained off limits for months. Metal barriers blocked entrances and exits, particularly around Hor Umm Ni’aj, a site protected by the Ramsar Convention. Following protests by Ahwari activists and pressure from local and international researchers, limited access has been restored, but authorities have still not explained the closure or the continued restrictions.

Conditions in the marshes continue to worsen. Many of the historic marshlands have burned or dried up entirely, with recent images revealing a desolate landscape characterized by water scarcity and dead aquatic life. Declining quantity and deteriorating water quality have led to a rapid depletion of oxygen levels, accelerating ecological collapse. For the Ahwaris, whose livelihoods and identity depend on the Marsh’s accessibility, this crisis represents yet another chapter in a long history of displacement and social marginalization.

Activists attribute much of this degradation to oil operations sanctioned by the Iraqi government. Three strategic oil concessions overlap with the protected area: Halfaya, Huwaiza, and Majnoon. TotalEnergies holds a stake in the Halfaya oilfield alongside a PetroChina-led consortium that has constructed six water-pumping stations on the Tigris, diverting around 60,000 cubic meters of freshwater daily to boost crude extraction. PetroChina’s operations alone have dramatically reduced the amount of water flowing into the marshes, undermining ecological health and agricultural activity, especially during the dry season. In addition to draining water resources, the oil sector has actively destroyed wetland areas through infrastructure construction. Development of the new Huwaiza oilfield by China’s Geo-Jade Petroleum is already underway inside a protected zone, in clear violation of Ramsar protections. While historical practices of degradation and negligence have led to a decline in the country’s ecological resilience, the current pace of destruction threatens to deepen Iraq’s instability and push the country further into its ongoing ecological collapse.

A Political System Built on Oil, Not Resilience

Oil has long shaped Iraq’s economy, governance, and political culture. Successive governments have failed to pursue a genuine path of economic diversification, leaving the state overwhelmingly reliant on hydrocarbons. Producing 4.5 to 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd), Iraq is one of the world’s leading oil producers and the second-largest in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Over the past decade, oil has accounted for more than 99 percent of Iraq’s exports, 85 percent of the government’s budget, and 42 percent of its GDP. Despite significant shifts in the regime since 2003, oil dependency continues to shape state institutions in ways that weaken governance and accelerate environmental degradation.

The post-2003 political era, often described as a flawed democracy, has allowed oil wealth to sustain various non-state actors both within and beyond the state apparatus. This focus on expanding the oil sector while neglecting broader social, economic, and political needs has deepened state fragmentation and entrenched patronage networks. The survival of political elites and armed networks linked to Iran are now contingent on preserving the status quo in the oil sector rather than pursuing economic diversification or institutional reform. The volatility of the oil industry reinforces these short-term, goal-oriented approaches. As a result, environmental reforms have been sidelined, with Iraq’s ecosystems being degraded and damaged at the expense of political and economic interests.

An Uncertain Future

The deep interdependence between Iraq’s local economies and their surrounding environments makes the social costs of ecological decline impossible to ignore. Families are increasingly forced to relocate to urban areas ill-equipped to accommodate an influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs). This displacement erodes community cohesion and heightens vulnerability, especially as resources are limited and government support remains weak. Diversifying the economy and investing in sectors such as agriculture are essential steps toward strengthening communities like the Ahwaris, who sit at the forefront of environmental degradation and socio-economic exclusion.

Nowhere is the urgency for reform clearer than in the Iraqi Marshlands: decades of environmental neglect, social marginalization, and economic exploitation have undermined one of the country’s most vital and historic ecosystems. Without reducing the country’s dependence on oil, Baghdad will be unable to build the institutional and adaptive capacity needed to protect its communities from the accelerating impacts of climate change.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Gulf International Forum.