How the Trump Administration Can Pull Iraq into its Orbit

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could mark a major shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the United States’ relations with Iraq. Since the 2003 invasion, Iraq has occupied a special place in U.S. foreign policy. Yet, Trump’s second term could see a radically different approach to Iraq than under previous presidents. For its part, Iraq’s leadership has adopted a cautious approach to Trump’s second administration, which will be shaped by Baghdad’s efforts to maintain a delicate balance between the U.S. and Iran—an increasingly difficult task as regional and global tensions evolve.

Of course, Trump’s second coming could reshape more than just Iraq-U.S. relations. The president will likely  impact key international issues like the war in Ukraine and Washington’s relations with NATO, the European Union, and Canada. Trump’s strong pro-Israel stance might also influence American regional foreign policy and shifting regional alignments. These international developments would undoubtedly affect Iraq, whose stability is deeply intertwined with the broader regional order. In a radically redefined Middle East, and with the right set of policies, Iraq could shift closer to the United States, marking a major development for the geopolitics of the region.

Threading the Needle
For over two decades, the Iraq-U.S. relationship has been shaped by Washington’s ubiquitous military presence in the country. However, this approach has not yielded the desired peace or stability in Iraq, which has faced persistent sectarian conflict, the rise of extremist groups, and political turmoil. The time has come for U.S.-Iraq relations to pivot away from military entanglement toward a more sustainable, co-equal, and cooperative framework. This will require both parties to refocus on fostering diplomatic ties, economic development, and institutional strengthening in Iraq, rather than relying on military power.

Iraq must also pursue domestic and foreign policies that maximize its independence and sovereignty. While the U.S. may retain a strategic interest in Iraq due to regional power dynamics, Iraq must take control of its own future. This means fostering internal reforms and working with international partners—especially the United States—in ways that promote Iraq’s long-term stability without leaving it vulnerable to external influence.

Expectedly, the Trump administration has redoubled Washington’s efforts to counter Iran across the Middle East. While Iraq’s relationship with its eastern neighbor has been a defining element of the former’s political landscape, Iran’s influence has declined significantly in the past half decade. Indeed, the 2019 Tishreen protests, which highlighted Iraqis’ growing frustration with Iran-backed political factions, exposed deep fractures within Iraq’s political elite. If Iraq’s leadership and the new American administration recognize this shift, it could open the door to a new chapter of cooperation that further diminishes Tehran’s influence in Iraqi affairs.

More recent regional events—such as the October 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel—have triggered a cascade of developments, including the intensification of conflicts involving Hezbollah and Israel, the collapse of the Syrian regime, and more intense U.S. military action against the Houthis in Yemen. These shifts signal that the zenith of Iranian power across the region may have passed. Iraq can seize this moment to distance itself from the Islamic Republic.

Of course, there are obvious dangers to hewing closer to the United States. The tensions that nearly boiled over into direct conflict between the U.S. and Iran during Trump’s first term—particularly after the killing of General Qasem Soleimani in 2019—left Iraq caught in the crossfire. A second Trump term, marked by perceptions of extreme vulnerability in Tehran, could resurrect those tensions, leading to further instability in Iraq if it becomes a battleground for competing U.S. and Iranian interests.

The reimposition of the United States’ “maximum pressure” strategy could also destabilize Iraq by triggering retaliatory actions from Iran-aligned militias. This would put Iraqi leaders in an extremely precarious position; Iraq would have to preserve its economic ties with the U.S. while navigating domestic political pressures and steering clear of the larger regional conflict. This balancing act could prove impossible.

Iraq’s dependency on Iranian energy imports further complicates its position. If Trump intensifies sanctions on Iran, which appears likely, Iraq’s economy could suffer without external support. If it wishes to pressure Iran without alienating Iraq, the United States would need to provide Iraq with alternative solutions to meet its energy needs. Indeed, Iraq’s domestic political scene itself is deeply influenced by the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Shia political parties and militias that maintains close ties with Tehran. The Coordination Framework has proven the main vector for Iranian influence in the country, and the bloc’s parties are among the United States’ most strident critics. Tensions briefly rose in the wake of Trump’s November 2024 electoral victory, with Iran-backed groups across the country preparing for possible confrontation with the new administration. Prime Minister Mohamed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s decision to congratulate Trump despite criticism from his own allies indicates the complex balancing act Iraq must perform to safeguard its interests.

A New Path: Fostering Economic Engagement and Strategic Partnerships

For the U.S., the current state of affairs offers an opportunity to reinforce its commitments to Iraq’s internal stability and independence from Iran. However, this course of action will require significant investments in the relationship. It will also require Washington to move beyond its reliance on military cooperation and expand economic and diplomatic ties to strengthen Iraq’s state institutions. Of course, there is still significant room for cooperation on security issues; Trump’s approach to the Iran nuclear deal may require Iraq to take steps to curb the influence of Iran-aligned militias, which would presumably involve greater U.S. support for Iraq’s armed forces.

The United States should encourage strategic investments in the Iraqi economy, assisting with energy, agriculture, and infrastructure development. These investments would help diversify Iraq’s economy, reduce its dependency on Iran, and build stronger ties between the two nations. By fostering economic partnerships, Washington can help Baghdad become more resilient to external pressures and more internally stable in the long run.

Before taking these steps, however, American leaders must first realize that Iran’s influence in Iraq is confined to certain political factions and does not reflect the broader Iraqi political landscape. To build stronger and more lasting strategic relations, the United States should engage with diverse political voices within Iraq and support humanitarian, cultural, and civil-society-led initiatives that strengthen Iraq’s natural and human resources. These actions would help to reduce the influence of sectarianism and extremist groups and help create a more stable and unified Iraq.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Gulf International Forum.