Living with the Flood: Why Yemen Must Prepare for a Wetter, Hotter Future

When it rains, it pours. From mid-to-late August, Yemen was hit by a wave of devastating flash floods that highlighted the country’s growing vulnerability to climate-related disasters. Intense and irregular rainfall affected more than 47,000 households—an estimated 329,000 people—across 16 governorates. The toll was particularly severe in Hajjah, Taiz, Al Hudaydah, Aden, and Lahj, where torrents of water destroyed homes, swept away belongings, and displaced entire families. In a country already engulfed by years of conflict and poverty, the added humanitarian costs of climate disaster is a burden too big to handle.

In Shabwa Governorate, floods surged through wadis in Omqeen, Habban, and Al-Saeed, submerging homes in the governorate’s capital, Ataq, and isolating entire villages. Weak drainage systems and the absence of early warning mechanisms deepened the crisis, leaving residents unprepared and authorities scrambling to respond.

Beyond human suffering, the impact was profound from an infrastructural angle. Roads and bridges were destroyed or damaged, severing already fragile supply chains. Makeshift shelters and informal settlements—already home to many war-displaced Yemenis—absorbed the brunt of the destruction, leaving thousands at risk of disease, hunger, and further insecurity. With critical infrastructure weakened and humanitarian systems overstretched and underfunded thanks to years of conflict and donor fatigue, the floods evolved from a natural hazard into a full-fledged humanitarian emergency.

Flooding, however, is not unique to Yemen or the Arabian Peninsula. Globally, floods accounted for 43% of natural disasters between 1995 and 2015, affecting more than half of all people hit by disasters and causing over a quarter of disaster-related deaths. In the Arab world, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) reports that in the past three decades alone, Arab countries have experienced nearly 270 disasters, resulting in more than 150,000 deaths and affecting some 10 million people. The region’s experience underscores a sobering truth: floods are among the most destructive hazards worldwide, and their consequences are especially severe in fragile and developing states.

The Forces Behind Wadi Flash Floods

Several natural and human factors drive Yemen’s flash flood risk. The August floods were part of a broader hydrological phenomenon across the Arabian Peninsula: wadi flash floods. Wadis—dry riverbeds or valleys—lie dormant most of the year but transform into powerful channels during intense rainstorms. Carved by geology to funnel water downslope, these natural drainage systems can quickly become destructive in arid landscapes where soils are thin, compacted, and unable to absorb much rainfall.

The dynamics of wadi floods in the Arabian Peninsula are shaped by multiple forces. Short, intense storms—often convective in nature or remnants of tropical systems (like the annual monsoons)—can unleash extraordinary amounts of rain in just hours. The steep slopes of Yemen’s highlands act like funnels, concentrating runoff from wide catchments into narrow channels and producing sudden, high-volume flows. Sparse vegetation and low soil permeability cause rainfall to begin flowing downstream as surface runoff almost immediately.

Human activity has greatly magnified these risks. Informal settlements, roads, and infrastructure often encroach on wadi channels or floodplains. Moreover, urbanization reduces natural infiltration and accelerates runoff. Layered on top of these pressures is climate change, which is transforming wadi floods from an occasional hazard into one of the Arabian Peninsula’s most pressing climate-related threats.

The Impacts of Climate Change

Rising greenhouse gas emissions are driving higher temperatures and disrupting rainfall cycles across the region. The Arabian Peninsula is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, placing immense pressure on already fragile ecosystems and societies. These problems are no longer seasonal, which is adding to the strain on already limited resources. In some inland areas, under high-emission scenarios, temperatures could rise by as much as 7–9 °C (45-49 °F) by the end of the century.

Even under moderate socioeconomic development, summers are expected to lengthen, winters will shrink, and seasons will begin to blur in familiarity. Nights are warming faster than days, erasing traditional cooling periods and compounding heat stress in both rural and urban settings. Higher temperatures also change how, where, and when rain falls. A hotter atmosphere holds more moisture, fueling more intense storms and raising the risk of extreme downpours. While the northwest of the Arabian Peninsula may become drier, southern regions—including Yemen—are projected to experience heavier rainfall and more severe floods.

The consequences of wadi flash floods extend beyond the immediate destruction of land and livelihoods. In the Arabian Peninsula, where there are no permanent rivers, groundwater is the only reliable source of freshwater—and wadi flooding has long been the primary means of recharging aquifers. Under normal conditions, flash floods spread out and seep into the ground, replenishing vital reserves. However, climate change is now drastically altering nature’s balance. Larger, faster-moving floods now rush downstream with less infiltration, depriving aquifers of the recharge they need. Under climate change, wadis risk acting less as lifelines for groundwater and more as destructive conduits for sudden surges of water. Climate change not only magnifies the devastation of flash floods, but also undermines the region’s most important source of freshwater, turning an already difficult issue into one that urgently requires a sustainable solution.

Building Resilience and Water Security

A critical first step for reducing the impacts of climate change is strengthening early warning systems and preparedness. Even low-cost, community-centered warning systems—such as SMS alerts, local radio announcements, social media notices, and mosque loudspeakers—can reach remote villages and dramatically decrease the number of casualties. By partnering with regional actors, Yemen can expand its hydro-meteorological monitoring, including rain gauges, river gauges, and radar stations. The implementation of simple hazard maps and preparedness drills in high-risk areas such as Hadramawt, Taiz, and Al Hudaydah can also help communities anticipate and respond to floods more effectively.

Beyond preparedness, Yemen must strengthen its resilience. Years of conflict have left much of Yemen’s infrastructure vulnerable, but incremental improvements can make a difference. In urban centers like Sana’a, Aden, and Ibb, clearing blocked drainage channels, installing simple retention basins, and building  check dams and diversion channels can slow runoff and reduce draining. Where possible, repairing or retrofitting critical roads, bridges, and housing with durable, locally available materials can improve safety without excessive cost.

Similarly, improved water and land management can reduce the impact of floods and safeguard Yemen’s groundwater lifeline—the region’s main source of freshwater.  Terracing, soil conservation, small-scale reforestation, and community-based floodwater harvesting (cisterns and recharge dams) can both mitigate flood impacts and support aquifer recharge. Additionally, Urban planning reforms—ensuring that new construction avoids flood-prone areas—can be introduced gradually and enforced in key high-risk zones.

Preparedness must also be paired with practical response mechanisms. Local rapid-response units, trained in evacuation, first aid, and search and rescue, can dramatically reduce casualties. Existing community spaces—schools, mosques, and halls—can serve as temporary shelters with minimal reinforcement. Small post-flood funds, supported by authorities and international partners, can provide immediate recovery assistance. At the same time, regional collaboration—particularly with Oman and Saudi Arabia—can provide opportunities for shared data collaboration on storm tracking and wadi forecasts, which can enhance early warning systems. Partnerships with international agencies and NGOs can support resilience-building projects, such as training programs in hydrology, climate science, and disaster risk reduction, that are tailored to Yemen’s situation. It is paramount, however, to acknowledge that only so much civil society programs and developmental projects can happen as long as Yemen remains divided.

Finally, resilience begins with communities. Low-cost awareness campaigns can communicate flood risks, safe evacuation routes, and basic first-response actions. Incorporating disaster and climate education into schools and engaging councils, tribal leaders, women’s groups, and youth networks fosters local ownership of disaster planning, even under continued constraints on resources and international cooperation.

From Emergency Response to a Future of Preparedness

The August 2025 floods are a reminder that Yemen cannot afford to treat climate-related incidents as standalone scenarios. With climate-change accelerating, responding to the current crisis is not enough—Yemen must also lay the foundations for long-term stability and climate resilience. These foundations must be built on a sustainable political solution to Yemen’s current political paralysis, as well as regional and international support for the fledgling internationally recognized government in Aden. The future of the Arabian Peninsula is a shared one, and the Gulf Cooperation Council would be wise to invest in relatively low-cost, high-impact projects that can both protect Yemeni lives and strengthen regional stability.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Gulf International Forum.